How much is the truth in the forecasts of Morgan Stanley?


How much is the truth in the forecasts of Morgan Stanley?

In his report, Morgan Stanley points to four periods in the development of bitcoin when bears on the market took a significant lead and a major market collapse occurred (at least 28% – a maximum of 92%). The market forecast of the Crypto-currency shows that a 70% drop was expected. Let's go through a report so respected in the world's crypto currency world.

First we need to get acquainted with the main crash of the crypto currency:

Fall of the name of autumn of 2017 is considered to be large by scale, as in 2017 we knew about the crypto-currency already all and carry out market correction in such conditions is extremely difficult. If you look at the fall of 2011 or even 2013, then the capitalization of the currency was small, bitcoin itself was known only for real fans of the digital world. In this case, it is much easier to stabilize the market, because there is no panic and negative external factors.

Recently one of the main theories suggests that bitcoin 2018 repeats the path of Ethereum 2017. Let's look at the ETH / USD movements in the period from March to September 2017:

As the current BTC / USD chart has in common with the ETH / USD of the previous year, the conclusions about the soon recovery of lost positions and even the growth of the main digital currency. The truth is not to reject such factors as the negative influence of the media (they spread panic among the masses) and the reasons for the drop in currencies (significantly differ).

It can be interesting:  Price analysis of BTCUSD, LTCUSD and ETHUSD as of 03/19/2018

Also in the report, the bitcoin of 2018 is constantly compared with Nasdaq in the mid-90s of the early 00's. Let's get acquainted with the schedule provided by Morgan Stanley:

Since 2000, the Nasdaq has fallen steeply 5 times (an average of about 44%). To date, bitcoin has experienced two falls in 2017 (an average of 43%). According to reputable analysts, the main digital currency is just like Nasdaq, only much faster (15 times). If the calculations of Morgan Stanley are correct, then at the beginning of next year the bitcoin price will return to the low of February 2018.

If to sum up the analytical note, the material is really good, although it contains some inaccuracies. Slightly different timing for low bitcoin is provided by the authoritative bank of Goldman Sachs, which speaks about the value of the report. Analyzes conducted by different methods gave almost identical result, which in general allows optimistic looking at the future of the main crypto currency. After all, like Nasdaq, bitcoin should also restore its positions.

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